Blockade

Issue 60;

• Broad rally in the run-up to peace talks, which have ended.
• Oil is back above $100.
• The money supply grows.

The World Index has a ByteTrend Score of 4 in USD. This is a sharp turnaround from two weeks ago, as the index trades back above its 200-day moving average. The 30-day moving average still has a negative slope.

World Index – Developed Markets – Daily

Oil Back Above $100

After a bout of optimism last week, there is now a US blockade in the Straits of Hormuz, which has sent the oil price higher. Brent Crude has a ByteTrend score of 5, having set back to 4 late last week. The risk of an oil shock remains likely.

The Money Supply

After a brief setback for liquidity, the G20 money supply approaches its all-time high. There is nothing that stockmarkets like more than money itself. The money supply has also been boosted by a weaker dollar, which is down 2% in April. If the dollar stays weak, perhaps markets will remain well nourished, just as they did during the pandemic, when the economy was largely closed yet stocks rose.

Global Equity Breadth – Local Currency

Breadth has improved for the past two weeks. This even anticipated the turn in the market on the announcement of peace talks. They have failed, but the market was likely expecting a more positive outcome.

Country Breadth – CAPR

Checking in on countries, oil-producing nations are the strongest, with the surprise exception of Italy. The weakest are leading industrial nations such as India, Germany, China, and the US. Indonesia has been persistently weak for other reasons, such as the MSCI warning on EM index inclusion, as the market has poor liquidity and governance.

New Trends Remain Soft

The number of new price highs has improved, but not by much. More importantly, the spike in bear signals has scaled back.

Net Winners

The winners less losers data is a powerful guide for asset allocators, which reflects what a momentum long/short strategy should look like. Energy, Utilities, and Financial Services remain the strongest sectors, with Healthcare, Consumer Cyclicals, Defensives, and Real Estate the weakest. This resembles the expectations and risks associated with higher bond yields.

Industry Trend Changes in CAPR

There has been no material change in sectors, but Basic Materials are back, while Healthcare continues to be derated. Energy was weak until Friday, but it has opened strongly this morning.

Trend Type Performance

The recovery has been broad, with the best performance from weakening and bear trends, which are oversold. I wouldn’t classify this as so much of a momentum crash as a lift across the board. The strength of the move implies considerable short positions had built up.

Regions and Industries Average CAPR Score

Metals are back in front with the highest group score. Utilities and Clean Energy have held up with old energy. Banks have also proved to be resilient. The Consumer, Health, and Software remain troubled. Food & Beverage has also improved significantly.

User Guide

Refer to our GTI: User Guide for an overview of the key concepts and terminology used in this report. These concepts may take a little bit of getting used to, but they are very powerful once you do.

How to Read the Tables

The Value Composite Score (Value) is measured against the company’s own financial history and not in absolute terms. The columns are Cheap (Chp), Value (Val), Fair Value (FV), Overvalued (OV), and Expensive (Exp). The Growth Composite Score (Growth) is measured by sales, earnings, cash flow, dividends, and book value on a per share basis. The columns are High, Good, Medium (Med), Low, and Negative (Neg).

Leading Trends with New Highs

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR highs with a ByteTrend Score of 5. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

Caterpillar

The recent mining cycle has been a boon for CAT. This strength has continued as reconstruction efforts will sustain high demand. More importantly, perhaps, is that their power and energy division has become their largest business, serving data centres.

HSBC

It is notable that HSBC is strong, as is Citigroup. Both are global banks with high exposure to Asia. This follows recent strength in Chinese banks, suggesting capital flows are seeking sanctuary in Asian financials.

Western Digital

Tech hardware remains super strong. WDC has sold out its entire production capacity for 2026. The bottlenecks are not just in the Straits of Hormuz.

New Leading Trends

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR highs with a ByteTrend Score of 5, except they are new trends this week, having previously had a score below 5. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

Eaton

AI training and inference require massive, reliable power delivery, distribution, and cooling. Eaton supplies critical electrical infrastructure — switchgear, busways, power distribution units, uninterruptible power supplies, and now liquid cooling solutions — from the "grid-to-chip." 

Emerging Trends

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR highs with a ByteTrend Score of less than 5. They don’t have to be in an uptrend, just emerging. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

Canadian National Railway

CNR had been under pressure due to a multi-year freight recession, U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods (steel, lumber, autos), and soft volumes in some segments. However, it has rebounded on signs of operational improvement and defensive capital returns. It’s a slow grower but a unique hard asset.

Weakening

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR lows with a ByteTrend Score above 0. They are weakening trends but not yet downtrends. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

Oracle

The main reason for ORCL’s weakness revolves around concerns over the massive costs of chasing the AI boom, rather than weak fundamentals. CapEx was raised from $15bn to $50bn for this year, and cash is burning as a result.

SAP

SAP, Europe’s accounting software giant, is weak, which primarily stems from disappointing cloud momentum signals and perceived lagging positioning in the AI era. The space creates both winners and losers.

Bear Trends

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR lows with a ByteTrend Score of 0. They are in a downtrend. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

Tesla

TSLA has seen zero sales growth for three years, yet still trades on 12x sales. There’s also the idea that TSLA fans are preparing for the SpaceX IPO, which will steal the limelight.

Intuit

Like SAP and others in the software space, the main issue is the derating as the market questions the long-term sustainability of software’s moat. It is brutal.

GTI 200 Spreadsheet

We are pleased to share the GTI 200 spreadsheet. Download the spreadsheet below to view the CAPR and local currency scores, and more, for the world’s largest 200 stocks. Have a look at the different groups and the main list “All stocks”. The Insights tab is interesting, and don’t forget to expand the columns by clicking on the “+” at the top of the page if you want to see more trend data.

Outlook

The energy market has priced in a short war, and the risk is that this is wrong. The market was optimistic last week in the run-up to peace talks, but they have broken down, and the Straits have been blockaded by both Iran and the USA. In April, we will start to see more evidence of real shortages in oil-related products, which could turn things back into bear mode. But if the dollar remains weak, financial markets may prove more resilient than currently expected.

Thanks for reading GTI.