Coca Cola Breaks

Issue 30;

The World Index holds a ByteTrend Score of 5 in the face of rising bond yields and a slumping dollar. Gold made an all-time high.

World Index – Developed Markets – Daily 

If you measure your wealth in Swedish Krona, the strongest currency over the past year, the ByteTrend Score drops to a 3, as the price has fallen below the 30-day moving average. Even more surprising is that the 200-day moving average has a downward slope. Global equities in SEK have virtually no money over the past year. 

World Index – Developed Markets – Daily – in Swedish Krona

Market breadth, the number of stocks doing well versus badly, deteriorated last week. The chart sows the leading, emerging, weakening, and bear trends. The reds have it.

ByteTrend: Weekly Breadth Signal – Local Currency

The regional CAPR chart sees the emerging markets give back ground, with the rest neutral. We noticed that six Saudi Arabian banks featured in this week’s bear list. Tariffs and a low oil price perhaps. 

CAPR: Europe, USA, Emerging Markets, Japan, Saudi Arabia - Past Year

The global matrix sees US financials improve versus Europe and Asia, with Goldman Sachs and Royal Bank of Canada showing strength. Utilities have dropped while energy has strengthened over last week. Consumer cyclicals are a little stronger, while consumer defensive remain weak alongside healthcare. Notably, Asian and European real estate have stumbled.

Average ByteTrend Score by Region and Sector Heatmap - CAPR

Highlighting the global sectors, which you will find on the GTI 200 spreadsheet “insights” tab (free, at the end of the stocks section), it is notable that financial and industrial stocks, the leaders since the April Tariff crash, are giving ground back. Technology is stable, but energy is stronger.

Sector Analysis - CAPR 

There is also this point about volatility groups. This market has been entirely led by volatile stocks. Low vol stocks have not featured in this cycle, with the weight being carried by the high vol stocks. It’s a sign of the times, with the good news being that the low vol stocks, which are traditionally the safe haven, will be oversold when this market turns down. Coca Cola is this week’s low vol headline slumper.

Volatility Analysis - CAPR 

Leading Trends with New Highs

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR highs with a ByteTrend Score of 5. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

Big banks are still strong, and Goldman Sachs is one of the biggest. It’s a major investor in Soho House which quit the public markets in August in a take-private deal. While private equity has seen generally weak activity, announced M&A volumes for the first half of 2025 were 30% higher YoY and 15% greater than the comparable 5-year average, benefitting its market leading M&A division, and driving strong groupwide results. 

Goldman Sachs

RBC, Canada’s largest financial institution by market cap, has broken decisively above its 200W CAPR moving average, continuing a good run which began in late 2023. Potential issues are major trade negotiations with both its major partners – the US and China, and Trump may seek to renegotiate CUSMA (the NAFTA replacement), and China placed tariffs on Canola, a major export of which it’s the second largest buyer. For now, these are clouds not headwinds, and domestic banking activity remains solid. 

Royal Bank of Canada

There is more to cruising than a post-pandemic rebound. Demand has been so strong, they are flush with cash and spending it developing major private resorts designed to fit with their cruise liners. Royal Caribbean is spending nearly $600m on the 200-acre Perfect Day resort on Mexico’s coast. This follows the huge success of its Perfect Day Coco Bay redevelopment, which cost $250m. It opened in 2019 (bad timing) but has driven significant profitability gains since cruising resumed. 

Royal Caribbean Cruises

There are 71 additional leading trends with new highs in the GTI universe.

Copper, gold, silver, aluminium feature along with oil and gas exploration. Auto parts also feature.

Emerging Trends

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR highs with a ByteTrend Score of less than 5. They don’t have to be in an uptrend, just emerging. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

Alphabet’s search engine monopoly seems threatened by AI, which can do a better job in some ways. Google has one too, but it's far from the best. However, the cloud and enterprise divisions have been driving continued group level growth, as they surged 30% in Q2 to over $50 billion annualised. They are showing there is more to the AI business than chatbots, and offerings from data centres to cloud solutions to AI research show that the long-feted innovative culture at Google is still strong. 

Alphabet