DEFCON 3

Issue 10;

The World Index drops back from ByteTrend Score 5 to a zero on the daily chart. The price bounced towards the end of last week but is rallying within a short-term bearish set-up as the 200-day moving average has now turned negative.

World Index – Developed Markets - Daily

On the weekly chart, the ByteTrend Score has fallen to 2 as the 30-week moving average has turned down. The index is no longer extended from the trend as it was in late 2017 and 2021. A retest of the 200-week MA is likely, but we are a long way from a long-term downtrend. A bearish set-up would be confirmed by the price falling below the 200-week MA. The 200-week MA would turn down in a bear market, last seen in 2008 to 2012.

World Index – Developed Markets - Weekly

The regional CAPR has seen the US market, which was weak in Q1, stabilise. Volatility has been high, but the rest of the world appears to be in an uptrend. EM, mainly China, has also landed at the same point as other major markets.

Europe, USA, Emerging Markets, Japan CAPR

Gold is on fire as the preferred safe haven, enhanced by the weakness in bonds. Quality and growth had a good week, while value gave back some ground.

Major Factors CAPR since 2020

The theme of the week is the continued rotation into defensive stocks and the derating of some of the most highly rated companies. Taiwan stands out as weak, yet there continue to be many strong stocks in the USA. Uncle Sam is down but not defeated.

In this issue of The Global Trend Investor, we cover the top 200 global stocks from a universe of over 2,000 stocks from both developed and emerging markets. We have analysed the trends, reported the results, and will discuss the highlights. We suggest you read our GTI: User Guide before you continue.

Leading Trends with New Highs

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR highs with a ByteTrend Score of 5. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

The world’s strongest stocks are currently all defensives. There’s nothing wrong with that, but it is a sign of the times.

Berkshire Hathaway has been the king of defensives, sitting on over $300bn of cash. It is a masterpiece, but it trades on 1.7x book, which is the highest since 2007.

Berkshire Hathaway

Walmart’s 2024 results were strong despite numerous threats and concerns. Tariffs will impact them, and they have pulled their 2025 guidance, citing a wider range of possible outcomes and a desire to have more flexibility. However, they expressed enough positivity to outperform the tariff tantrum.

Walmart

Australia is closer to China geographically, but the West politically, which puts it in an unusual spot. Commbank’s top- and bottom-line continued to grow steadily in their 2024 results, and they recently increased their dividend by 5%.

Commonwealth Bank of Australia

John Deere suffered a blow in Q1 2025 when sales fell 30% and net income 50%. Tariffs will undoubtedly impact it heavily too. However, they stated that they expect to make up the shortfall over the rest of the year. Like Walmart, it is seen as a high-quality, essential, and defensive business, which has counted for more during the tariff shock.

John Deere

Nintendo is a favourite company of long-term stock pickers, Lindsell Train, and its historic IP attracts each new generation of children born. However, it too suffered a sharp fall in Q1 revenues and lowered its guidance, but notably, the comparison quarter a year earlier had multiple flagship game releases. The launch of its long-awaited Switch 2 handheld console was pulled due to the tariff announcement on the same day, but it remains hotly anticipated. Nintendo sits on a 20% cash position relative to the market cap, supporting its resilience so far.

Nintendo

There are 96 additional leading trends with new highs in the GTI universe.  

Emerging Trends

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR highs with a ByteTrend Score of less than 5. They don’t have to be in an uptrend, just emerging. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

There is a surprisingly short list of emerging trends this week in the GTI 200. Might this be a sign that many of the big stocks have seen their best days? That said, unlike the leaders, where the US features strongly, the emerging trends are seen in Australia, Canada, China, Japan and Switzerland. Gold miners feature strongly as well. I highlight the emerging trends from the GTI 200.

Charles Schwab may benefit from market turmoil for a time as trading volumes increase. A prolonged bear market or recession would be a different story. For now, its strong Q1 results (healthy inflows and EPS up 49% YoY) mean it’s started 2025 okay.

Charles Schwab

Healthcare stock CVS is up over 50% YTD, is the S&P’s best performer, and is back above where it was before April 2. Healthy results and guidance have started to get the analysts on their side, and the long underperformance and resulting low valuation do the rest. It started the year on its lowest EV/S multiple in thirty years.

CVS

Japanese telecoms business NTT had a difficult 2024, underperforming the world by almost 40% as margin declines were more powerful than rising revenues, leading the company to a net loss. Net profit margins had been rising for a decade, but intense competition in Japan led to lower ARPUs (average revenues per user) and the need for costly investment programs like data centres. It also still holds a Russian business, which is not performing well.

Nippon Telegraph and Telephone

Vinci’s key financials grew slightly in 2024, EPS beat analyst expectations, and the company guided for more of the same in 2025. Profitability and growth were both hit by the pandemic, but the business has returned to its former strength, and the stock started to outperform in 2025 as a beneficiary of the rotation into Europe. The 4.2% dividend yield is the highest in a decade, and other multiples look favourable to its own history, too.

Vinci

There are 59 additional emerging trends in the GTI universe. 

Weakening

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR lows with a ByteTrend Score above 0. They are weakening trends but not yet downtrends. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

These have been highly rated stocks, and now reality bites. Blackstone will be facing liquidity issues. Caterpillar makes a relative low, just as Deere makes a high, which is a notable divergence.

TSMC is the manufacturing equivalent of a systematically important financial institution (SIFI). The world runs on the chips it makes, but it makes them in Taiwan. Geopolitics still matters less than its monopoly position and incredible profitability, but it has been cajoled into investing an additional $100 billion (on top of $65 already planned) into manufacturing capacity in the US. An earthquake caused disturbance in Q1, but the pre-tariff stockpiling in March saw revenues surge.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing

Oracle’s growth disappointed analysts in early March, and it has fallen sharply since. Last week, in a further blow, it announced a second large data breach. However, its cloud business was a silver lining in the results, with infrastructure being particularly strong (up 49% YoY) and the order book hitting record levels, too. It hiked its dividend by 25%, leading to a 1.5% yield.

Oracle

Weight-loss giant Novo Nordisk continues to climb down Mt Fuji, forming a perfect top last June and reversing 2.5 years of CAPR gains in around nine months. GLP-1s are a phenomenon, but the belief that a duopoly would reign for decades has been broken, and Novo with it.

Novo Nordisk

Private equity giant Blackstone saw record inflows and huge revenue growth in Q4 2024, with the CEO calling it “one of the best quarters in our history”, but hopes for a rebound in dealmaking under Trump have been crushed. There are not enough buyers for holdings they want to sell, and that illiquidity forces slower deployment of new capital.

Blackstone

There are 34 additional weakening trends in the GTI universe.

Bear Trends

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR lows with a ByteTrend Score of 0. They are in a downtrend. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

In the broader universe, Taiwan shows up, with the technology featuring heavily.

Accenture’s 2024 results were mild but met expectations. 2025 started better, but not well enough, and the underperformance that started in January 2022 has accelerated. Slightly lower profitability was particularly disappointing, as cost inflation from wages continues to pressure margins.

Accenture

Disney, like Nintendo, has phenomenal IP and a growing global market with each new child born into the world. However, a corporate rollercoaster, box office fatigue, falling profitability and weak subscriber additions to Disney+ have weighed on it for years now. Activist pressure from Nelson Peltz has not achieved the turnaround people hoped for.

Walt Disney

UPS is reducing Amazon’s share of its business due to low profitability, but this hurts volumes in the near term. Its troubles began when the lockdown online shopping boom faded, and costs began to rise, and they haven’t ended yet. A trade slowdown is the last thing they need.

UPS

Nike was heavily affected by the high Asian tariffs, but a reprieve for Vietnam helped it bounce, and the smartphone exemption is giving corporate lobbyists hope that the same can be won for their industry. Nike badly needs it, as the long-term trend is not good, and the turnaround was hard enough before.

Nike

There are 146 additional bear trends in the GTI universe.

Outlook

I hope you like this new concept. The GTI 200 provides a quick overview of the major shifts in global equity trends. The broader GTI universe will be released, likely in spreadsheet form, in the coming week(s). It’s not for everyone, but for the eager investor wanting to turn over stones, it is a powerful tool.

This issue has been sent to ByteTree PRO clients, our best clients, before a wider release. Thank you for highlighting the issues in the user guide, which will be fixed. Please let me know what you think of GTI, as well as any questions you may have, and how to improve it by writing to gti@bytetree.com.

Thanks for reading GTI.