GTI Premium Spreadsheet, 19 December 2025
Our Global Trends system is nearing the end of its first year. So far, it has alerted us to the weakness of US stocks relative to the rest of the world (contradicting the narrative), highlighting opportunities elsewhere. Italy and Spain are the strongest countries right now.
Since late October, it has continued to flag a rotation from previous winners into new areas. This is occurring under the surface, as the World Index continues to have a CAPR score of 5. Index investors will not notice for now, but under the surface, the areas which are generating alpha (outperformance) are changing.
This week, energy stocks lost some momentum (falling from an average CAPR score of 2.1 to 1.9), while financials are regaining their strength (back up to 2.7), especially in Europe (3.0). Nintendo and Sony joined the Bear list for the first time, while the UK's largest stock joined the Leading Trend list. Plenty to dig into as always.
