Issue 8;
The World drops from a ByteTrend Score of 5 in February to a 1 on the daily chart. There is no new low yet, but don’t be shocked if that happens.
World Index – Developed Markets - Daily
On the weekly chart, the ByteTrend Score has fallen to 2 as the 30-week moving average has turned down. The index is still quite extended from the trend, as it was in late 2017 and 2021. A retest of the 200-week MA is likely, but we are a long way from a downtrend.
World Index – Developed Markets - Weekly
The regional CAPR chart blames the US market, with EM, Europe and Japan providing a relative safe haven.
Europe, USA, Emerging Markets, Japan CAPR
Both growth and quality have declined on a global basis, with value and gold showing an uptrend. This is what you would expect to see in an inflationary environment.
Major Factors CAPR since 2020
That is supported by a rise in US inflation expectations.
US Two-Year Inflation Swap
The ByteTree thesis is that an environment where inflation is rising favours hard assets. When that coincides with falling bond yields, which we are seeing in the USA this year with DOGE but not everywhere, that is a strong environment for the gold price.
Bond Yields: UK, US, Europe, China and Japan
In this issue of The Global Trend Investor, we cover the top 200 global stocks from a universe of 2,500 stocks from both developed and emerging markets. We have analysed the trends, reported the results, and will discuss the highlights.
They are grouped into four categories: Leading and Contrarian bullish trends and Weakening and Bearish downtrends.
Our User Guide explains everything you need to know. Further questions can be directed to gti@bytetree.com.
