Measuring Trend Time

Issue 29;

The World Index makes another new all-time high, sustaining its ByteTrend Score of 5. A weak dollar was a boost as Fed Chairman Jay Powell signalled a likely rate cut at the 17th September meeting. That news was well received by the stockmarket.

World Index – Developed Markets – Daily 

Market breadth strengthens again, with more strong blue trends, and fewer weak red trends, across our global universe of 2,500 stocks.

ByteTrend: Weekly Breadth Signal – Local Currency

Breadth shown by GTI trend type is also revealing. The number of bear trends has retreated quickly. That means fewer weak stocks are weighing down on global markets. Leading and emerging trends have held steady.

Average ByteTrend Score by Trend Type

Average ByteTrend Score Region and Sector Heatmap - CAPR 

Yet the leadership is broadly unchanged in recent weeks. Financials maintain their strong lead, while industrials follow. Energy and basic materials are stronger this week as they catch up with industrials.

ByteTrend Time Counter

Rashpal has added time counters to the spreadsheets. You can now count the number of weeks that a trend has been in place in both CAPR and local currency terms. The max we count to is 60 weeks, as few last beyond that.

In the first example, Standard Chartered has maintained a ByteTrend core of 5 in CAPR for 55 consecutive weeks. In local currency (GBP) it has held a ByteTrend Score of 5 for the past 7 weeks.

Standard Chartered – 55 weeks with a ByteTrend CAPR Score of 5

Constellation Brands, maker of fine alcoholic beverages, has maintained a ByteTrend CAPR Score of 0 for more than 60 weeks, and a ByteTrend local currency score of 0 for 33 weeks. That’s a long time to be in the doghouse.

Constellation Brands – 60 weeks with a ByteTrend CAPR Score of 0

This feature also identifies new trends. Barrick Gold has a ByteTrend Score of 5 in CAPR, for the first time since 2022. In other words, the time with a ByteTrend Score of 1 for Barrick is 1 week. Go gold stocks.

Barrick Gold has a new ByteTrend CAPR Score of 5

Another example is the German truck maker, Traton, which shows up with a new ByteTrend CAPR Score of 5, and also in local currency. It follows a similar move by Volvo last week. Time to go trucking?

Traton ByteTrend Score of 5 in Local Currency

This feature is available in both the premium spreadsheet, which covers the whole universe, and the free GTI-200 spreadsheet. The point here is that GTI will continue to improve. Well done, Rashpal, for yet another development. Rigorous back testing and model portfolios are on the to-do list, and we look forward to revealing these at a later date.

Your feedback and suggestions are welcome.

Please refer to our GTI User Guide for an overview of the key concepts and terminology used in this report. These concepts may take some getting used to, but they are very powerful once you do.

Leading Trends with New Highs

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR highs with a ByteTrend Score of 5. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

UBS is the largest cap stock, ranked number 43, making a new CAPR high this week. It means all the mega caps didn’t. Notice how the list is largely both financial and European.

Following its wobble earlier this year, UBS has delivered strong results and still trades on 1.4x book. There was $55 billion of client inflow, progress on the integration with CSFB, and a further $2 billion of share buybacks.

UBS

Tobacco stock, BTAS, is on track to deliver in smokeless products. The kids no longer smoke, but they vape. Despite the rally, it maintains an 8% free cashflow yield.

BATS

Technology investment company, Prosus, holds a stake in Tencent and Delivery Hero. But positive tones around peace in Ukraine, were well received regarding their stake in Russia’s VK. When will Russian stocks return?

Prosus

There are 96 additional leading trends with new highs in the GTI universe. There’s real estate in Europe and Japan. Industrials are strong, with autos and auto parts. There are also more biotech companies, but financials continue to lead the world.

Emerging Trends

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR highs with a ByteTrend Score of less than 5. They don’t have to be in an uptrend, just emerging. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

Singaporean consumer internet company beat expectations in all areas. Shopee in ecommerce, SeaMoney in financial services, and Garena in entertainment were all ahead of forecasts. The cashflow looks interesting with plenty of upside in the forecasts.

Sea Ltd