The Bulls Have It

Issue 27;

The world index closed the week back at an all-time high. The ByteTrend Score has returned to a 5.

World Index – Developed Markets – Daily 

The rally in the US dollar caused concern for stockmarkets. The USD’s ByteTrend score is still a 3, but markets took relief when the price fell back. 

US Dollar Index – Daily 

It seems likely that when markets start to feel the pinch, the money supply increases, thus driving this bull market higher.

The G20 money supply is back to an all-time high following the 2022 contraction. This data lacks by a month, but the trend is clear.

G20 Money Supply

Breadth improved over the week as there are more strong trends (blue) and fewer weak trends (red) around the world again.  

ByteTrend: Weekly Breadth Signal – Local Currency

At the country level, Spain stands out alongside Italy, Ireland and Belgium. Asia is weak with the US just below the halfway mark. Of course, the large US companies more than make up for the many more that are weak. 

These charts, and many more, are available free in the attached GTI 200 spreadsheet. In sector strength, financials, industrials, and technology dominate, with energy, real estate and healthcare lagging. 

The regional CAPR chart sees Japanese stocks in the lead over the past year. Their tariff deal was good enough, but bear in mind the starting point, which will next week its head start flushed out when measured over the past year. More notable is the US has turned down again, albeit slight, paving the way for other regions to rally. 

CAPR: Europe, USA, Emerging Markets and Japan - Past Year

The world matrix favours financials around the world. One reason is that their earnings are boosted by higher interest rates and not held back by a weakened consumer at this point, while they still offer good value. Tech is strong in the USA, but not in Europe. In contrast, the internet stocks (comms) are stronger in Europe than in the USA. Healthcare is under severe pressure.

Average ByteTrend Score by Region and Sector Heatmap - CAPR

Leading Trends with New Highs

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR highs with a ByteTrend Score of 5. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

Detractors say Palantir is the flagbearer for the bubble in American and Trump trades. However, if you had bought the trend and ignored the narrative, you would have enjoyed an excellent 12 months. Such is the power of momentum. 

Palantir

Once seen primarily as an aviation company, Safran, like many others, has gained “defence stock” status, taking it to its best level against the index in a decade. It is also European, which has been the focus of increased defence spending plans in 2025. Results have been strong, and its reached ten-year valuation multiple highs as a result. A very strong trend, backed by a consensus narrative. 

Safran

Arista Networks is a high-growth, highly profitable American IT company. It connects large clients to cloud-based services, serving data centre and cloud operators, and large enterprises. No wonder it’s doing so well. However, it is volatile, falling over 50% in the first few months of 2025, before recovering all the lost ground and hitting a ByteTrend score of 5 again this week. The 200W moving average barely noticed the move, and Arista is a long way above it once more. 

Arista Networks

Japanese tech firm Softbank’s rally continues, as its initial jump was followed by Trump’s trade deal with Japan, boosting sentiment on the country in general. SoftBank is a large position in the Topix index, so positive momentum at the index level automatically drives capital flows into it. As for SoftBank specifically, first quarter results beat expectations on profits, giving it a 10% gain last Friday. This was driven by a significant turnaround in its Vision Fund investments and renewed investor enthusiasm for AI ventures. It is also moving to list its payments app business PayPay.

SoftBank

Retail trading platform Robinhood is a young company, having had its IPO just over five years ago. As a result, the ByteTrend score doesn’t pick up anything before June, 2025, and it started life with a 5 as it bounced back from a tough few years. Its IPO may look bad on this chart, but from its perspective, it sold the top.

Robinhood

There are 97 additional leading trends with new highs in the GTI universe. Key features are European banks, HK capital markets, tobacco, construction, and tech hardware. Barely a consumer in sight.

Emerging Trends

These stocks are trading at the 30-week CAPR highs with a ByteTrend Score of less than 5. They don’t have to be in an uptrend, just emerging. All charts shown are CAPR rebased to 100.

Samsung’s turnaround continues. The narrative not long ago was that it had fallen behind and couldn’t catch up with the American chipmakers. But all trends start from the bottom, and there’s nothing like a consensus negative opinion to get them going. 

Samsung